Explaining the Black Swan - Humans Predictably Unpredictable
I have been enjoying listening to The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
While at times the tone of the books can be condescending and even derisive, Taleb is certainly the observer of human nature and its hubris; however I certainly admire his keen mind and dedication to thinking a new thought.
Taleb himself is the embodiment of why black swans occur: humans have the ability (free will) to decide where they will focus their minds, and therefore, their spirit - focused energy that creates.
What is rare is that humans do this, but when they do, a departure from collective thought occurs and black swans can be seen.
The central thesis of Taleb's book is the unpredictability of certain large events, such as 9/11 or the sudden explosion of book sales by an unknown author or the stock market crash of 1987.
These events are large in scope and as he posits, are unpredictable and have a large impact.
Not all Black Swans have a negative impact, but certainly they get the most press.
Take for example the black swan event of 9/11.
At the time it was viewed as an event that came out of the nowhere.
When in fact to my thinking, it was NOT a black swan, but could have been easily predicted if we looked at the consequences and results of the applied focus of human thought energy consistently along a certain path.
All events are the effect of the consistent applied focus of the human spirit.
When we apply our spirit (energy), we create; we can by free will create anything we want.
That is simply and factually how things come into manifestation.
Why we thought 9/11 was "out of the blue", is because we haven't been looking at the events over a long period of time that consistently created a pattern that culminated in that horrific event; and we do not believe this is how we create.
Partly perhaps in the case of 9/11 is that the choices of thought/action that led up to that day were concealed from public view as covert activities and not readily discernible.
Recently the Reverend Wright, Obama's pastor had the courage to shed this light on the topic when he said "America's chickens had come home to roost.
" What is more profound in looking at black swans is the precise point that we are too busy with daily minutiae to think or even to observe the consequences of our thoughts and actions (individually or collectively).
Americans are distracted from critical thinking to consider thoughtfully their individual thought patterns, let alone those going on in Washington and as a nation collectively.
However this has come about, our abdicating our position to the few policy makers in Washington (or Wall Street or the media or the medical establishment or...
) and believing that "they" know best; and becoming so awash in trivia, for a long time now Americans have abdicated their responsibility for thinking for themselves individually.
I realize that we are all overloaded with work and the business of trying to make a living and get the kids to soccer practice, but what sorely lacks is fundamental skills in critical thinking and the necessity of it.
I don't recall being taught critical thinking in public schools; and perhaps this is really a part of why America is looking at the critical real need for the public, the people, to make a huge change and step up to the plate of governing themselves.
But when I see the popularity of such shows as American Idol and the reality TV shows, I wonder at the consciousness level of America at all.
This is the 18th year in which I have not watched broadcast television.
Like Taleb, I gave it up a long time ago.
For me, I made a clear decision one day that I could interpret the events of the day for myself, and as "news" on the television was not the recitation of fact, but rather the interpretation of events, I turned it off for good.
Like Taleb I found that I was rewarded with a lot of new found time to read a good book, tinker in the garden, or simply sit on the porch thinking about things.
And there it is, thinking about things: considering things; contemplating things; allowing a new thought to take form, and then the deliciousness of turning it over and over in your mind, examining it from different perspectives and finally forming your own conclusion or hypothesis.
What I see are Americans in two fundamental camps of thought fitness.
The first is largely preoccupied with what is firmly in front of them: CNN news, television shows, daily dramas.
All their focused mind energy is spent dwelling on the event, the drama, and the negative energy of the same.
Whatever the current tide is, is where their Life Force is focused, clearly helping to create more negative drama.
Their focus is in the here and now of the reality of someone else's creation: usually lack, fear and doom.
Their focus is "out there" giving "them" the power.
The second group of thinkers in America uses meditation and contemplation to escape the current dramas, but more to the point, they use meditation and contemplation to leave the planet to have the "God" experience.
Mostly these folks are reaching for "God" someplace else and desire and seek out an "out-of-body" experience through some mystical communication with "God".
Their focus is "out there" as well, and not in the here and now.
Their power is misplaced outside themselves, as well.
There is a third group of thinkers out there, not necessarily Americans, however, who are learning to use current events and the power of meditation and contemplation to launch NEW thoughts and to create New paths.
Taleb is clearly one of them.
What he points to are those who are not caught up in the collective thought, but rather are people who "march to their own drummer".
These are a rare breed these days, but they are out there.
These folks are the ones who clearly don't know that "it can't be done".
They move in their own thought pattern, listening within to their own "Voice", and think their own thoughts and do what they must to follow It.
The "platonic" mind that Taleb talks about - the humanized Western mind - has become so ridiculous, that it does not allow, value or can even recognize this type of thought.
Unless it follows "the way it is done", it is ostracized from CNN, Vanity Fair, Hollywood, and Wall Street.
These organizations, to me, have come to represent the human mind which embodies limited thinking which keeps us in fear, in lack, and will ultimately bury us as a civilization.
But there is a movement happening amongst the people, where they, the individual John and Jane Doe's are coming awake.
Slowly but surely the average person is rubbing the sand from his/her eyes.
My evidence: witness that the organic industry topped $11 billion dollars last year without one dollar of subsidy from the US Government.
Witness the rise of independent films and the ability to share your point of view instantly on YouTube.
Witness the millions of self-published books on the internet discussing any topic that you can imagine.
And more importantly any author can express his thought and disseminate it instantly without having to stand hat-in-hand begging the publishing houses to publish the work.
"They" are losing control, and this, is a very good thing.
We will be able to see more black swans if we are looking for them.
I like to look for the positive black swans, the diamonds in the rough, which via their constant, sustained focused thought and applied spirit create their vision into physical manifestation.
There are no "surprises" if you follow the thought trail and if you are observing things understanding the culmination of thought into thought form and finally into form.
On the individual level I can only hope that more and more John and Jane Doe's come to understand the vast power in their thoughts and therefore their actions (or lack of actions); and that they begin to deliberately focus themselves away from the trivia and minutiae towards the creation of wondrously good ideas and works that bring heaven to earth.
The power is resident in each and every one of us.
Now it is for us to learn to harness that focus and apply our spirit consciously and deliberately each moment.
Exciting, isn't it?
While at times the tone of the books can be condescending and even derisive, Taleb is certainly the observer of human nature and its hubris; however I certainly admire his keen mind and dedication to thinking a new thought.
Taleb himself is the embodiment of why black swans occur: humans have the ability (free will) to decide where they will focus their minds, and therefore, their spirit - focused energy that creates.
What is rare is that humans do this, but when they do, a departure from collective thought occurs and black swans can be seen.
The central thesis of Taleb's book is the unpredictability of certain large events, such as 9/11 or the sudden explosion of book sales by an unknown author or the stock market crash of 1987.
These events are large in scope and as he posits, are unpredictable and have a large impact.
Not all Black Swans have a negative impact, but certainly they get the most press.
Take for example the black swan event of 9/11.
At the time it was viewed as an event that came out of the nowhere.
When in fact to my thinking, it was NOT a black swan, but could have been easily predicted if we looked at the consequences and results of the applied focus of human thought energy consistently along a certain path.
All events are the effect of the consistent applied focus of the human spirit.
When we apply our spirit (energy), we create; we can by free will create anything we want.
That is simply and factually how things come into manifestation.
Why we thought 9/11 was "out of the blue", is because we haven't been looking at the events over a long period of time that consistently created a pattern that culminated in that horrific event; and we do not believe this is how we create.
Partly perhaps in the case of 9/11 is that the choices of thought/action that led up to that day were concealed from public view as covert activities and not readily discernible.
Recently the Reverend Wright, Obama's pastor had the courage to shed this light on the topic when he said "America's chickens had come home to roost.
" What is more profound in looking at black swans is the precise point that we are too busy with daily minutiae to think or even to observe the consequences of our thoughts and actions (individually or collectively).
Americans are distracted from critical thinking to consider thoughtfully their individual thought patterns, let alone those going on in Washington and as a nation collectively.
However this has come about, our abdicating our position to the few policy makers in Washington (or Wall Street or the media or the medical establishment or...
) and believing that "they" know best; and becoming so awash in trivia, for a long time now Americans have abdicated their responsibility for thinking for themselves individually.
I realize that we are all overloaded with work and the business of trying to make a living and get the kids to soccer practice, but what sorely lacks is fundamental skills in critical thinking and the necessity of it.
I don't recall being taught critical thinking in public schools; and perhaps this is really a part of why America is looking at the critical real need for the public, the people, to make a huge change and step up to the plate of governing themselves.
But when I see the popularity of such shows as American Idol and the reality TV shows, I wonder at the consciousness level of America at all.
This is the 18th year in which I have not watched broadcast television.
Like Taleb, I gave it up a long time ago.
For me, I made a clear decision one day that I could interpret the events of the day for myself, and as "news" on the television was not the recitation of fact, but rather the interpretation of events, I turned it off for good.
Like Taleb I found that I was rewarded with a lot of new found time to read a good book, tinker in the garden, or simply sit on the porch thinking about things.
And there it is, thinking about things: considering things; contemplating things; allowing a new thought to take form, and then the deliciousness of turning it over and over in your mind, examining it from different perspectives and finally forming your own conclusion or hypothesis.
What I see are Americans in two fundamental camps of thought fitness.
The first is largely preoccupied with what is firmly in front of them: CNN news, television shows, daily dramas.
All their focused mind energy is spent dwelling on the event, the drama, and the negative energy of the same.
Whatever the current tide is, is where their Life Force is focused, clearly helping to create more negative drama.
Their focus is in the here and now of the reality of someone else's creation: usually lack, fear and doom.
Their focus is "out there" giving "them" the power.
The second group of thinkers in America uses meditation and contemplation to escape the current dramas, but more to the point, they use meditation and contemplation to leave the planet to have the "God" experience.
Mostly these folks are reaching for "God" someplace else and desire and seek out an "out-of-body" experience through some mystical communication with "God".
Their focus is "out there" as well, and not in the here and now.
Their power is misplaced outside themselves, as well.
There is a third group of thinkers out there, not necessarily Americans, however, who are learning to use current events and the power of meditation and contemplation to launch NEW thoughts and to create New paths.
Taleb is clearly one of them.
What he points to are those who are not caught up in the collective thought, but rather are people who "march to their own drummer".
These are a rare breed these days, but they are out there.
These folks are the ones who clearly don't know that "it can't be done".
They move in their own thought pattern, listening within to their own "Voice", and think their own thoughts and do what they must to follow It.
The "platonic" mind that Taleb talks about - the humanized Western mind - has become so ridiculous, that it does not allow, value or can even recognize this type of thought.
Unless it follows "the way it is done", it is ostracized from CNN, Vanity Fair, Hollywood, and Wall Street.
These organizations, to me, have come to represent the human mind which embodies limited thinking which keeps us in fear, in lack, and will ultimately bury us as a civilization.
But there is a movement happening amongst the people, where they, the individual John and Jane Doe's are coming awake.
Slowly but surely the average person is rubbing the sand from his/her eyes.
My evidence: witness that the organic industry topped $11 billion dollars last year without one dollar of subsidy from the US Government.
Witness the rise of independent films and the ability to share your point of view instantly on YouTube.
Witness the millions of self-published books on the internet discussing any topic that you can imagine.
And more importantly any author can express his thought and disseminate it instantly without having to stand hat-in-hand begging the publishing houses to publish the work.
"They" are losing control, and this, is a very good thing.
We will be able to see more black swans if we are looking for them.
I like to look for the positive black swans, the diamonds in the rough, which via their constant, sustained focused thought and applied spirit create their vision into physical manifestation.
There are no "surprises" if you follow the thought trail and if you are observing things understanding the culmination of thought into thought form and finally into form.
On the individual level I can only hope that more and more John and Jane Doe's come to understand the vast power in their thoughts and therefore their actions (or lack of actions); and that they begin to deliberately focus themselves away from the trivia and minutiae towards the creation of wondrously good ideas and works that bring heaven to earth.
The power is resident in each and every one of us.
Now it is for us to learn to harness that focus and apply our spirit consciously and deliberately each moment.
Exciting, isn't it?