What makes one bet a good one and another bet a bad one when betting on harness races? It doesn't really matter what the contest is, a good wager is always one that is profitable.
What makes a wager profitable is the fact that the horse wins more often than the crowd thinks it will and therefore, it is undervalued.
The perception of the average harness racing handicapper is that a horse dropping in class is a better bet than a horse moving up in class.
That just isn't true, because best bets are the ones that make money and horses dropping in class are usually overbet.
The wagers that make money are the ones that go against conventional handicapping logic.
If you follow the races and keep track of which horses win and what the trainer moves are, you'll find that horses that have a strong race at a lower class level often move up and win.
It is often a horse that showed a fast last quarter or finished within a few lengths of the winner.
Good trainers can move a horse like this up and win.
The win probability isn't the only factor that makes it an attractive wager.
The real key is that the bettors will under value it.
That goes back to the fact that the horse seems to be racing against tougher horses.
While that may be true, if the horse is moving up in its form cycle, the improvement in its ability may offset the tougher field it is racing against.
If you find a horse that is lightly raced, and therefore not worn out, and that has a good trainer, meaning one with a high win percentage, then a move up in class may signal that the trainer feels his or her horse is rounding into form and ready to take on the better horses.
If the odds are right, this can be the best bet in harness racing.