Indian Stock Market Predictions & Future Trend Direction Forecast 2011
Indian stock market have crashed more than 1100 points on Nifty till now in February 2011. Our previous future predictions on the market did well. After the crash now investors are asking, whether its time to buy n jump in the markets? I received few queries asking if the market crash in Indian stock over yet? Where is the stock market going to go, where is it headed now?
Retail Investors is not at a much loss this time around, they have been rather away from the markets being skeptic about it. Many investors were waiting on the sideline for the markets to cool down before they enter buying in the market.
Crude Oil prices cooling down, Mubarak resigned Inflation will come down, IIP no.s will improve, markets have corrected the excess valuation of share prices.
Start of a new Bull Market Or Has The Bear Market already started in Indian Stocks??
I certainly doubt if we will see a bull market anytime before May 2011. India is facing problems of its own like the 2G spectrum scam, ISRO Scam, Financial scams, Fiscal Deficits, rising commodity prices etc. Another problem is the confidence of serious investors which has weakened because of issues like Corporate Governance and such investors are not easy to convince.
Any issues related to the corporate governance, investors will simply dump those stocks and such stocks may see insane share prices. After all the governance makes or breaks a corporate and investors trust is bound to lose.
Indian Markets could be headed for a crash post budget 2011. On the downside markets may test 4500-4600 levels on Nifty and close to 15000-15500 on Sensex looks like a target market is preparing for.
I am also concerned over some global issues and I think the markets worldwide are going to go through another phase of bear attacks. Shall be discussing those global concerns soon which the U.S markets have been ignoring.
Fundamentalist Would Find Stock Price Valuation Attractive & Would Advice You To Buy Stocks
You already would have got buy calls from fundamental analyst who must have shared a stock advice with you to buy something or the other saying that the share price is cheap, attractive valuations, eps n blah blah blah …
Before you take any serious actions on the basis of such mentalist's, I feel its my responsibility to give you the early, but the "last warning" because Stock Markets Globally are set to see the biggest crash we have already seen till now in 2011 and most likely to happen in March post budget, carried forward till April 2011.
There are some things which Fundamental analysts cannot foresee or predict which is known as so un-predictable. To foresee in the future and forecasting it correctly is anyway a unique and rare ability after all.
There's other important issues as well which are to be taken care of than just reading the financial books, accounts of a company and share prices in markets knows it all, since markets starts discounting everything in advance. Read how we successfully been predicting markets.
Foreign Institution Investors (FIIs) Would Be Selling More After Temporary Rise
FIIs invested $30 Billion in 2010 and during this time everything was moving up fast since the liquidity kept chasing stock prices. Till now FIIs been able to sell only $2 Billion of stocks and prices have already corrected this much. Do you think they wanted to sell only for $2 Billion and made share price correct this much?
One reason why its not easy to sell is because markets lack buyers, theres no depth in the market, spreads are big. Share prices reacts (falls) too fast on small quantity of shares been sold, resulting in non-favourable situation for Investors to sell.
Mutual Funds (FIs) have been buying past few days and have bought equity of worth $1 Billion and all this while FIIs were selling.
Basic idea is that a big net worth investor cant sell until n unless theres enough money and buyers in the market whom he can dump his stocks.
What Big Investor Needs Is Scapegoats (Convinced Buyers – Bulls) To Offload Stocks
Markets cant keep falling or rising without breaks, commonly known as pullbacks or correction. We have seen enough pullback on Indian stock market leading indices and stocks prices.
Many sees it as a buying opportunity to shoot there guns buying stocks. A continued pull back/short covering rally to levels up to 5550-5600 on Nifty would convince buyers even more and then no one would be talking or thinking about downside risk in market.
Human Psychology and Human Emotions Drives Direction In Stock Market
The human psychology behind investing and trading stocks is the combine force that moves the stock market. A stock chart is nothing more than a picture of human emotions – fear, hope, greed and Euphoria. All these emotions gives direction to prices in stock market.
Price moves makes people change there mind and markets can't fall without euphoria in investors. When people will get buy calls on media business channels, newspapers, websites etc and seeing the prices going up, they might feel they are missing and then will get tempted to buy.
When they see there buying going right in the right direction, they get further convinced and rather than selling, they would do the just opposite – Buy More!
That state of mind is the psychology markets are going to create in investors mind in the coming days left till budget. Post budget expect bears to re-attack.
Price Is The Only God In Stock Market and Prices Are Given Direction By Humans Like You and Me
To Be Continued ……
Retail Investors is not at a much loss this time around, they have been rather away from the markets being skeptic about it. Many investors were waiting on the sideline for the markets to cool down before they enter buying in the market.
Crude Oil prices cooling down, Mubarak resigned Inflation will come down, IIP no.s will improve, markets have corrected the excess valuation of share prices.
Start of a new Bull Market Or Has The Bear Market already started in Indian Stocks??
I certainly doubt if we will see a bull market anytime before May 2011. India is facing problems of its own like the 2G spectrum scam, ISRO Scam, Financial scams, Fiscal Deficits, rising commodity prices etc. Another problem is the confidence of serious investors which has weakened because of issues like Corporate Governance and such investors are not easy to convince.
Any issues related to the corporate governance, investors will simply dump those stocks and such stocks may see insane share prices. After all the governance makes or breaks a corporate and investors trust is bound to lose.
Indian Markets could be headed for a crash post budget 2011. On the downside markets may test 4500-4600 levels on Nifty and close to 15000-15500 on Sensex looks like a target market is preparing for.
I am also concerned over some global issues and I think the markets worldwide are going to go through another phase of bear attacks. Shall be discussing those global concerns soon which the U.S markets have been ignoring.
Fundamentalist Would Find Stock Price Valuation Attractive & Would Advice You To Buy Stocks
You already would have got buy calls from fundamental analyst who must have shared a stock advice with you to buy something or the other saying that the share price is cheap, attractive valuations, eps n blah blah blah …
Before you take any serious actions on the basis of such mentalist's, I feel its my responsibility to give you the early, but the "last warning" because Stock Markets Globally are set to see the biggest crash we have already seen till now in 2011 and most likely to happen in March post budget, carried forward till April 2011.
There are some things which Fundamental analysts cannot foresee or predict which is known as so un-predictable. To foresee in the future and forecasting it correctly is anyway a unique and rare ability after all.
There's other important issues as well which are to be taken care of than just reading the financial books, accounts of a company and share prices in markets knows it all, since markets starts discounting everything in advance. Read how we successfully been predicting markets.
Foreign Institution Investors (FIIs) Would Be Selling More After Temporary Rise
FIIs invested $30 Billion in 2010 and during this time everything was moving up fast since the liquidity kept chasing stock prices. Till now FIIs been able to sell only $2 Billion of stocks and prices have already corrected this much. Do you think they wanted to sell only for $2 Billion and made share price correct this much?
One reason why its not easy to sell is because markets lack buyers, theres no depth in the market, spreads are big. Share prices reacts (falls) too fast on small quantity of shares been sold, resulting in non-favourable situation for Investors to sell.
Mutual Funds (FIs) have been buying past few days and have bought equity of worth $1 Billion and all this while FIIs were selling.
Basic idea is that a big net worth investor cant sell until n unless theres enough money and buyers in the market whom he can dump his stocks.
What Big Investor Needs Is Scapegoats (Convinced Buyers – Bulls) To Offload Stocks
Markets cant keep falling or rising without breaks, commonly known as pullbacks or correction. We have seen enough pullback on Indian stock market leading indices and stocks prices.
Many sees it as a buying opportunity to shoot there guns buying stocks. A continued pull back/short covering rally to levels up to 5550-5600 on Nifty would convince buyers even more and then no one would be talking or thinking about downside risk in market.
Human Psychology and Human Emotions Drives Direction In Stock Market
The human psychology behind investing and trading stocks is the combine force that moves the stock market. A stock chart is nothing more than a picture of human emotions – fear, hope, greed and Euphoria. All these emotions gives direction to prices in stock market.
Price moves makes people change there mind and markets can't fall without euphoria in investors. When people will get buy calls on media business channels, newspapers, websites etc and seeing the prices going up, they might feel they are missing and then will get tempted to buy.
When they see there buying going right in the right direction, they get further convinced and rather than selling, they would do the just opposite – Buy More!
That state of mind is the psychology markets are going to create in investors mind in the coming days left till budget. Post budget expect bears to re-attack.
Price Is The Only God In Stock Market and Prices Are Given Direction By Humans Like You and Me
To Be Continued ……