Closing Commodity Comment For 3-6-12
Grain Futures€"The Grain market was mixed today with wheat finishing nine cents lower $6.62 a bushel in the May contract with corn futures for May six cents at $6.55 a bushel however the soybeans and the soybean meal continue their bullish run with soybeans finishing six cents higher 13.31 a bushel and a new contract highs in the May contract also soymeal is hitting new contract highs at363.40 up over five dollars and showing real strength when the commodity sectors today were pummeled to the downside on the fact that China has lowered their growth rate to 7.5% a year, however there is no stopping the soybean meal and the soybeans at this point. Oat futures for May were slightly lower down three cents at 3.05 a bushel while rough Rice futures were only down nine cents at 14.26 a bushel in the May contract in very light trade in Chicago today. I still advise traders to keep close stops on the soybean market just in case what has happened to silver and many the other commodities markets which have fallen a sharply in a matter of three or four days which also could happen to the soybean market going into a report on Friday which will release crop production, traders should have stops and a risk management system in place so you do not allow the soybeans to give back solid profits that you have gained for the last three weeks practically when every single day has been slightly higher, so be careful on the downturn because when it comes it could be sharp and quick. I have been trading soybeans since 1994 and I do not remember such a slow grinding bull market in last month or so with the same pattern developing where they open lower and then finish 5 cents higher almost every single trading session and this is all happening with corn and wheat not participating to the upside which makes it more remarkable that the soybeans are at these levels. I would have thought that today we would have seen some profit taking but it was just the opposite once again climbing to new contract highs in heavy volume. I believe the soybeans could have a run up to $14 dollars a bushel especially if Fridays report on crop production is bullish for prices, if you have any questions about the crop report or if you are looking to hedge your crops please call Michael Seery at 800-615-7649.
Coffee Futures-- Coffee futures today stumbled with the rest of the commodity sector finishing down 900 points to a fresh contract low of 193.05 a pound in heavy volume in New York. Coffee continues its bear market over the last eight months continually making lower lows and lower highs once again today feeling the brunt of the commodity selloff and punishing coffee down 900 points which is equivalent to around $3000 per one contract if you were short or long coming into today's trading session. The chart looks very bearish and coffee prices could be headed down the 175 level during the springtime so I would not fight the trend as the saying goes in commodities you go with the trend and the trend is your friend and the trend in coffee is sharply lower.
Sugar-Cotton & Lumber-- Cotton prices today reversed from yesterday sharp 400 point limit up move due to the fact that India is banning the export of cotton in India is the second largest exporter of cotton in the world causing prices the suddenly skyrocket yesterday, however after opening higher cotton finished down 80 points to finish at 91.420 a bale on sympathy with the rest of the commodities which were hammered to the downside today. I believe cotton is in the bottoming process with India cutting exports that very good bullish news and that is what cotton is been looking for because it has been in a bearish trend. However cotton will compete with acreage with corn and beans and both of those commodities are much higher in price and will pay off a farmer much better by planting those two commodities rather than cotton so there will be a battle of acres this spring and I think cotton will be the winner by having less acres thus the price going higher and the demand is there because of the news with India not exporting cotton. Sugar prices today finished 63 points lower to finish at 24.05 in a lack luster trade down basically in sympathy with crude oil and all the other bio diesels and commodity markets today. I still think sugar is in a bull market and I believe investors should buy the futures contract and put a stop below the contract lows limiting your risk which could be profitable. I think you have a chance to make money because I've seen days like this before and it's everybody rushing out the exit at the same time and prices will stabilize in my opinion in the next couple of days. Lumber prices were lower by 170 points to close around 274.50 per board feet in light trading in Chicago. Lumber futures have been hovering around contract highs for over a week but able to penetrate 285. Traders in the lumber pit are watching the unemployment report which comes out on Friday morning for further price direction.
Energy Futures-- The energy sector today was down sharply as was the entire commodity and stock markets due to China's 7.5% growth rate which was very disappointed to traders so today crude oil was sharply lower down almost 2 dollars settling at 104.90 a barrel, while unleaded gasoline rallied towards the close only finishing down the 100 points at 3.24 a gallon while heating oil finished only down 200 points at 3.20 a gallon for the trading day. Natural gas was unchanged for the day right at contract lows at 2.35 per cubic feet in a lack luster trade today. The US dollar today was sharply higher for the fourth consecutive day the Euro currency continuing to collapse even though the situation in Europe see