How 2013 Went: Fairly typically. And that’s both a good and bad thing. Look, we can all agree that Oregon now counts itself among the most very elite of the college football world these days. They have been a regular national title contender for years now, and that’s what they were once again in 2013, running out to an 8-0 start that hinted a season of greatness. And then? Well, then came the inevitable stumble.

Stanford knocked the Ducks out of the ranks of the unbeaten in early November, and then Arizona put an end to any title hopes with a stunning victory just a couple of weeks later. As good as this program has been recently—and it’s been very, very good—the simple fact of the matter is that it can’t seem to get over the hump. I just wonder how, or if, that will ever change. .

How 2014 Looks: Typical. It looks typical. With a slew of top talent returning, including quarterback Marcus Mariota, and with a favorable schedule (at least in comparison to Stanford), the Ducks seem to be the consensus pick to win the Pac-12 North—and, by extension, the conference championship. But can we really count on this bunch to avoid getting tripped up once more? Would you trust them to beat Stanford, even given the fact that the game will be played at Autzen Stadium? Is there something inherent to the Oregon system that makes them vulnerable to losses at the hands of power teams? All important questions. And I’m not sure we have answers yet.

Schedule Breakdown: As stated above, Oregon catches a big break with the fact that Stanford has been dealt a really tough schedule and has to play the Ducks on the road. That tilts the odds in Oregon’s favor, though it must be said that the Ducks aren’t looking at a walk in the park, either. The Week 2 contest against Michigan State suddenly looks like a real test—just as the Cardinal about the Spartans—and there are road games at both UCLA and Oregon State. The Oct. 18 showdown against Washington at home also looks interesting.

The Season Will be a Success If ...: The Ducks can reassert their supremacy in the Pac-12 North, knock off Oregon and win the conference title. This team is probably still a few players short of national title quality, and at some point I’d like to see this program toughen up a bit physically, but there’s no denying the utter dynamism of the Ducks. They are fun to watch. They score a ton of points. And they’re going to spend most of the season hanging right around that Top 5. Whether or not they can end up there remains to be seen.

The Season Will be a Failure If ...: If Stanford clips the Ducks again and retains the title. I think for a time there we all assumed that, with USC on the decline, Oregon would become the de facto annual favorite out West. But the still surprising rise of Stanford has thrown a wrench into things, and UCLA’s improvement under Jim Mora Jr. means this league is only getting tougher. This league won’t always be a two-horse race. But it is this year. Which means the Ducks had better take advantage while they can.

The Verdict ...: That Week 2 contest against Michigan State is a bigger game than people are giving it credit for. While the Spartans may not have quite the quality they had during their dream season in 2013, they will once again be in the mix to win the Big Ten and, perhaps more importantly, place precisely the kind of game that Oregon hates; the Spartans are big and strong and they just line up and hit you. A win there could give this Ducks team some confidence as they move into tough October. I think they’ll beat the Spartans, and I think they’ll win 11 games, but in the end, I give Stanford the edge in the division and in the league. Prediction: 11-2