THE CAUSES OF LIVESTOCK REDUCTION IN THE RURAL CONTEXT: A CASE FOR GOKOMERE MISSION RURAL AREA
ABSTRACT
The study empirically examines the causes of cattle livestock reduction in Zimbabwean rural areas using evidence from Gokomere Mission using panel data, pooled OLS approach. Despite the expansion of families meaning the increased accumulation of wealth in terms of domestic symbols (livestock), it has been noticed that livestock have decreased rapidly from the past decade statistics. Several factors can be sited for such happenings, however the study applies field research skills in form of questionnaires (since no continuous records were kept) to determine the main factors of the reduction in livestock and suggest possible solutions. Among the factors found; aging of population, rising cost of living (crisis) and disease outbreaks (affecting calves mainly) has been the identified factors. The study surprisingly found that stock theft has not significantly caused cattle reduction but actually retards it.
Fluctuations in the level of livestock in a nation can be cited as a factor to explain crises on the national resources, especially downwards fluctuations. Traditionally, one way to store wealth especially in rural areas is to convert any yield to livestock, with cattle being the most valuable and preferred. This is because cattle can be used for many purposes as compared to any other domestic animal, for example they can be used for meat in ceremonial times, used to pay lobola, used to draw ploughs and carts and also for milk production. Livestock are primarily seen as financial capital. For many poor households livestock are the main form of savings. As an investment few other resources have the same potential for "capital growth". Sale of livestock may allow a household to generate cash quickly at times of need. Livestock may also be a regular and important source of income, through sales of products - including manure. The focus of this study is on determining and explaining the factors that have led to cattle livestock reduction and ways to combat the unfavorable case.
Despite the contribution livestock have on human life, they to some extend cause havoc to the nation. Livestock have been criticised for contributing to global warming (18% of current greenhouse gas emissions in CO2 equivalents), for introducing new disease (bird flu, and mad cow disease), and causing heart disease, cancer and obesity. Such views might make international agencies and donors hesitant to be seen promoting livestock to alleviate poverty, (International Livestock Research Institute). However, animal-source foods are a key weapon for combating malnutrition and a range of nutritional deficiencies, which are far more urgent problems in poor countries. Thus, animal-source foods can measurably enhance nutritional quality in diets, especially for vulnerable groups such as young children and pregnant and lactating women. Efforts are needed to raise awareness among policy makers and researchers about the benefits of animal-source food consumption for the poor and the negligible risks of negative (nutritionally mediated) health impacts and the small negative environmental impacts of livestock kept by the poor, relative to the much larger societal benefits of livestock keeping for their livelihoods.
Moreover, livestock and livestock rearing are also risky. Poor households have limited disposable incomes and therefore a limited ability to purchase inputs, for example animal health services or supplementary feeding, and as a result are less able to control mortality of stock than are the richer or non-poor farmers operating on a larger scale. Livestock markets may also have seasonal peaks that are not suited to the capabilities of the poor, putting poor livestock keepers at a further disadvantage - especially since they still have year-round needs for inputs and require income for food and basic needs, (LPP, 2006).
Some researches have predicted positive growth in livestock numbers in the years to come. This fact, however becomes questionable as far as Zimbabwe is concerned particularly its rural areas. The fact in question as predicted is given like this, "Human population growth, increasing urbanization and rising incomes are predicted to double the demand for, and production of, livestock and livestock products in the developing countries over the next 20 years. Livestock production is growing faster than any other agricultural sub-sector and it is predicted that by 2020, livestock will produce more than half of the total global agricultural output in value terms. This process has been referred to as the livestock revolution," (Delgado et al., 1999).
Given such a view, Zimbabwean rural areas are doing the opposite and an investigation into this is necessary and thus forms the relevance of this study. For the past decade the Gokomere farm has been recorded to have over 1000 herd of cattle and currently the stock of cattle have reduced almost by half, which is a significant decline. Attention should be drawn as to why this change has reached those levels. So it is in the interest of this study to find the causes of such decline and to find ways to address this issue.
At this backdrop, the timing and sequencing is more relevant, since Gokomere Mission being part of the rural areas in developing nations and could not avoid the reduction of its livestock, in conducting a study regarding the reduction in livestock and the alternate measures for revenue mobilization.
Research Problem
Given the predicted global livetock revolution by 2020 in developing nations, why do Zimbabwean rural areas move in the opposite direction? It has been noticed that demand for livestock product is far increasing implying a shift in production of livestock. The problem which the study seeks to address emanates from the fact that there has been a continuous decline in the level of livestock in the rural areas of Zimbabwe, evidence from Gokomere over the past two decades. The causes of such trend should be investigated and mitigation strategies found should then be applied to rescue a nation.
Research Questions
The general question and specific question of the study are consecutively as follows;
(a) What has led to the decline in the livestock (cattle) in the period?
(b) Does stock theft lead to decline in stock levels?
(c) Does migration to towns lead to increased wealth in form of cattle livestock?
(d) What is happening over time to the rate of cattle livestock reduction?
Objectives of the Study
Given the fact that the stock of livestock continues to decline in rural areas of Zimbabwe with no particular reason, the causes have to be found. As livestock is taken as an investment by rural households, it then has to be seen growing over time for it to be deemed good investment. Unlike the Navajo Livestock Reduction case (in the 1930s) when the livestock levels have been too many given the land area and the US government has to intervene by slaughtering, the case for Gokomere rural livestock reduction is not known. Hence, the objective of the study is to determine the factors that have caused significant reduction in cattle livestock.
Hypothesis of the study
The main hypotheses to be tested in this study are that:
These hypotheses are tested by determining the significance of the regression coefficients of relevant regression equation that will be estimated.
Significance of the Study
The study helps in identifying factors that undermines the growth in the size of stock in communities. The results can be used to take relevant measures to prevent the declining trend and hence to boost the rural and also country wealth. The study will contribute to existing literature on livestock production for developing nations, this helps in the continuous debate of the effects of various determinants. Analyzing the determinants offers a guide to policy makers on which areas to put more emphasis.
Scope of the Study
A fully comprehensive coverage of all rural areas of Zimbabwe is practically impossible therefore in the study only the Gokomere area is used. The information obtained in this analysis can be transferred across to other nations for the purpose of policy formulation. The study uses secondary data gathered for twenty five families for a period 1995 to 2008, this offers adequate degrees of freedom to the study. This involves the researcher going to the area and collect data from randomly selected households. It has to be noted that, where no records could be found the author gives the households a chance to give what they remember, the option has been given since the missing records have mainly been of current years.
Previous literature treated livestock as any other commercial farm activity. When demand for livestock is low, farmers opt for other highly demanded farm produces. However livestock production is treated as a long term project which needs high levels of capital and appraising it involves strategic analysis.
Few literature involved discussion of livestock production in the rural context. Rural people do not keep livestock for commercial production rather they have other reasons they base their activities. Social status is usually measured by the number of livestock and wives one possesses. Economically powerful people in the area are determined that way. Ritual ceremonies and payment of lobola are some uses of livestock.
Previous studies have mentioned the outbreaks of diseases such as anthrax, foot and mouth among others as the main factors leading to reduction in livestock. During that time factors like theft and migration of people were not so strong and hence were not considered. Hence the study has a time dimension, which means it is based on what is really happening in a period of time. This study adds to empirical literature in the rural context.
Khoabane and Black (2009), in their study for Lesotho, found out that livestock theft contributed to livestock reduction, the main causes of theft being increasing poverty among the unemployed workers and drought stricken crop farmers. Livestock theft reduces the affected households' own consumption of both the "returns" on their wealth, e.g. milk and wool, and of wealth itself, e.g. meat and hides. In addition, it restricts their ability to sell their returns and wealth in the market place and use the proceeds to acquire other food and non-food products. Some policy implications are also highlighted.
Kynoch and Ulicki (2000) found that migration to towns inorder to find jobs has increased in response to the increase in agricultural unemployment, which is attributable to stock theft among other factors. Members of some households have been able to find work in the urban parts of the country. These are mostly young female members, who have been employed in the textile industries (Dzimba and Matooane, 2005). Some work as nannies and domestic workers and are in most cases paid wages that are below the minimum wage.
A study by Dzimba and Matooane (2005) indicated that due to stock theft many children leave school early because parents cannot afford to pay for their schooling. However the implementation of free primary education policy in Lesotho, which now covers the entire primary school system, every Lesotho child can complete primary education. Secondary and high school levels are a problem, the government subsidizes a significant portion of the school fees and parents still bear a relatively substantial share of the total costs. Also every child who completes high school successfully and obtains an admission into tertiary institutions in Lesotho and South Africa instantly qualifies for government sponsorship, which covers all the costs. However, this opportunity is lost for those whose parents cannot afford paying for their secondary and high school education are not able to benefit from this opportunity.
The FAO (1997) states that there are some very poor households that managed to accumulate some livestock from hiring out their sons as herd boys for richer households in Lesotho. Many of the relatively rich households have been impoverished as thieves have stolen a large part of their livestock. This suggests that stock theft affects poor households in two different ways: firstly, poor households lose the stock that they have to the thieves; and secondly, they are no longer able to accumulate livestock by hiring out their services to the rich as the thieves have also left many of the formerly rich with none.
The study proves to be one of the pioneers to explore the determinants of livestock reduction particularly cattle and no literature could be found linking other determinants to the dependant variable. In that case the author uses some skills and method to justify its inclusion in the model. The study will now discuss the methodology to be used.
In order to meet the set objectives, the study attempts to include both quantitative and qualitative techniques. The study will employ a panel data methodology to capture individual family effects since we have different families. Tests will be carried as to which method will be suitable given the data in the study. This involves testing fixed effects model against pooled OLS, fixed effects model against random effects model and pooled OLS against random effects model. The tests include the F-test, Hausman test and the LM test. Autocorrelation and homoskedasticity will also be controlled to yield efficient results.
According to theoretical and empirical literature and also through strategical analysis the model to be estimated in the study involves six factors. Basing on the above argument, a testable equation for cattle livestock reduction can be given by:
CAT= f(THEFT, DISEASE, COST, MIGRATION, TREND, AGINGPOP)
Where; CAT- number of livestock, THEFT- number of stolen livestock, DISEASE- number of livestock died of a disease, COST- cost of living, MIGRATION- young people moving to town, TREND- time, AGINGPOP- years of caretakers/owners.
CHOICE OF VARIABLES
Cattle Reduction variable (CAT) is measured as the number of cattle a family possesses annually. This is taken as the dependent variable in the regression equation. It shows the changes in cattle livestock over the entire period.
Theft variable (THEFT) captures the number of stolen cattle in a year for each family. Theft is expected to have a positive relationship with cattle reduction. Main reported thieves for cattle are butcher men and they target high quality and big oxen, and to prevent this household despose those cattle with high probability of being stolen. This will then undermine cattle production.
Disease variable (DISEASE) will capture the effects of disease outbreaks affecting cattle production. It is approximated by the number of deaths due to known and unknown diseases. Major reported deaths are from calves and hence this affects production as aging livestock is not well replaced by young ones. Expected sign is positive.
Cost of living variable (COST). It is expected that as the cost of living rises the wealth of rural households decreases as they freeze their assets to cover themselves. A positive sign is expected.
Migration variable (MIGRATION) is captured by the number of young people moving from rural areas into towns. It is expected that if one moves into town he will generate more earnings and remit others back home, this will then add more wealth to rural areas in form of increased livestock. A negative sign is expected.
Years of livestock caretakers variable (AGINGPOP) is measured by the age of those people who manage the livestock. It is postulated that as people get old they can no longer manage the livestock productively. Some may even sell other livestock and leave a few which they can manage. A positive sign is expected.
The time trend variable (TREND) capture the effect of time to the production of livestock. It is expected that production of livestock is not stagnant rather it changes over time. Hence it is in the interest of this study to trace the direction of cattle production.
STATA 10 econometric package have been used for the estimation of data, this is the latest version so far and hence more efficient. The software can be used friendly as far as panel data analysis is concerned and it automatically corrects heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation and hence efficient standard errors and unbiased coefficients are obtained. According to the tests undertaken the pooled OLS have been deemed more efficient and hence the results will be used for policy conclusion.
The results obtained from the regression are well presented in the table below.
Pooled Ordinary Least Squares Model Regression Results
Dependent Variable: Cattle Reduction
COEFFICIENT STANDARD ERROR P-VALUE
THEFT -.717364 .712838 0.07 *
DISEASE 2.178459 .3328278 0.000 ***
COST 1.616582 .6491281 0.015 **
MIGRATION .6336156 .8926818 0.480
TREND -.6011118 .169669 0.01 ***
AGINGPOP 0.02342 .23451 0.03**
CONSTANT 1205.217 339.398 0.001 ***
Number of obs = 2100 Adj R-squared = 0.5367
F( 6, 319) = 20.23 Prob > F = 0.0000
DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
The pooled OLS model used in the study is appropriate and correctly specified as indicated by an F-statistic of 20.23 and a p-value of 0.000. the adjusted R-squared of 0.5367 shows that about 53.67% variation in cattle reduction is explained by the explanatory variable chosen, it shows that there is a possibility that some factors that affect cattle reduction have been left by the present study.
The coefficient of DISEASE reports a positive value of 2.178459 with a p- value of 0.0000. it is significant at all levels and shows that it is a major variable in explaining cattle reduction. This can be interpreted as follows; outbreak of diseases in the area has led to the death of calves mainly and hence have led to the number declining.
The rising cost of living is also significant in explaining the reduction of cattle in the area. It is significant at 5% with a positive sign of 1.616582. As the cost of living increases people tend to sell their livestock so as to cover up other expenses such as school fees and food. This will automatically lead to the decline of cattle numbers.
Theft variable has been found significant but with a wrong sign. This implies that stock theft has not led to cattle reduction rather it has caused a decline in the rate of reduction. This seems not practical, however after a thorough examination into this result, it has been discovered that after the outbreak of theft, households exchanged their ‘potential to be stolen' livestock with smaller ones from nearby secured white commercial farms. The rate of exchange was on average one ox to four calves. However it has to be noted that it seems a benefit according to this study but using economic valuation there is loss to households generated by theft.
Aging of population is also positively related to cattle reduction. The variable reports a statistic of 0.02342 and a p-value of 0.02. It shows that it is one of the major variables. As people get old they need less number of cattle they can manage and hence they tend to sell them.
The time variable is also significant at 5% level but with a negative sign. This shows that over time cattle reduction has been prevented. Economically we can say there was a 60% effort to reduce cattle reduction. Although there is reduction of cattle livestock in the rural area, the rate at which they are declining has been decreasing over the period.
The migration of the young population to towns or other areas have been found not explaining any cattle reduction. Initially there was a thought that they will remit some money to buy more cattle, but this idea is not supported by the study as the variable is insignificant. It has been discovered that the population which migrated have largely been caretakers and young women looking for employment in towns after their stocks have been either stolen or die of a disease and were poverty incapacitated and hence unable to remit. Many of them worked as nannies in towns.
The study have found factors including theft, aging population, rising cost of living and disease outbreak to be the major causes of cattle reduction in the Gokomere area. So policies to combat the reduction of livestock should be based on the results of this study. There should be a way designed to avoid diseases affecting calves. Treatment of livestock early, educating the residents to the issue and making availability of medicine for curing the diseases. Theft should also be prevented as this causes the poor to lose jobs, this can be done through the development of domestic watchmen, bringing kraals closer to homes to improve security at night and avoiding strangers in the area. Awareness to the aging population should also be done, they may reduce their burden of taking care of the livestock buy giving those who do not have any on a commission rather than disposing them. The rising cost of living is more of the national problem and should be addressed at national level. The government should try to stabilize the economy and also educate the rural population on the true value of their livestock otherwise they dispose them for far lower value leading to more cattle sold to address a single issue.
The literature revealed indicates that cattle livestock plays a significant role in the livelihoods of the rural poor in developing countries in many various forms. Thus stock theft, which has taken on alarming proportions in Zimbabwe, has exacerbated the problem of poverty among rural households. The effects of stock theft on households include an enforced cut back in the own consumption of and the sale of animal products (part of the returns to wealth). It also removes their ability to sell livestock itself and use the proceeds to acquire other food and non-food products or expand and diversify their farming activities. Taking human development dimension, livestock theft often prevents household heads from investing in the human capital development of their children, and may also result in a deterioration of the household's nutritional status adding to health expenses. The loss of livestock limits the coping strategies available to HIV/AIDS affected households. Policies to combat this problem are emphasized by this study.
There is a need for increased investment in livestock production, given the rapidly growing demand for animal products and the important contribution of livestock to the incomes and welfare of the rural poor. Development policies then should be of priority in developing nations, this can be witnessed by increase in the proportion allocated to agriculture in the overall economic budget. Currently inadequate government intervention is seen in rural areas.
In conclusion, the problem of cattle reduction in Gokomere area and other areas in similar state can be combated if the findings of the study are considered and also its advice. Policy makers should concentrate on policies that focus on the factors found to be affecting cattle reduction. By this Zimbabwe as a developing nation will be able to join others in the road to The Livestock Revolution, and also be able to arrest poverty problems, which are also part of the Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations.
REFERENCES
DELGADO, C et all (1999). "Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution", Food, Agriculture and the Environment Discussion Paper, 28, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.
SELLOANE KHOABANE AND P A BLACK(2009). "The effect of livestock theft on household poverty in developing countries: The case of Lesotho" University of Stellenbosch, South Africa
MARIA ANGELES O. CATELO(2006). "Understanding the links between Agriculture and Health: Livestock and Health. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC
KINGDON, G and KNIGHT, J. (2004), "Unemployment in South Africa: The Nature of the Beast", World Development, 32, 3:391-408.
HOLMANN, F. et ell (2005), "The Role of Live Stock in Poverty Alleviation: An analysis of Colombia", Livestock Research for Rural development, 17, 11. Available on http://www.cipav.org
KYNOCH, G. and ULICKI, T. (2000), "Is it Like the Time of Lifaqana: The Impact of Stock Theft and Violence in Southern Lesotho", Journal of Contemporary African studies, 18, 2:179-206.
KHOABANE S and BLACK PA (2009), "The effect of livestock theft on household poverty in developing countries: The case of Lesotho", Stellenbosch Economic Working Papers: 02/09
DZIMBA, J. and MATOOANE, M. (2005), "Stock Theft and Human Security: A Case Study of Lesotho", Available on http://www.iss.co.za/pubs/Monographs/No113/Acknow.htm
FAO (1997), "Lesotho: Agricultural Sector Investment Programme-Sustainable Mountain Agriculture Development Programme", FAO Investment Centre Studies and Reports, United Nations.
The study empirically examines the causes of cattle livestock reduction in Zimbabwean rural areas using evidence from Gokomere Mission using panel data, pooled OLS approach. Despite the expansion of families meaning the increased accumulation of wealth in terms of domestic symbols (livestock), it has been noticed that livestock have decreased rapidly from the past decade statistics. Several factors can be sited for such happenings, however the study applies field research skills in form of questionnaires (since no continuous records were kept) to determine the main factors of the reduction in livestock and suggest possible solutions. Among the factors found; aging of population, rising cost of living (crisis) and disease outbreaks (affecting calves mainly) has been the identified factors. The study surprisingly found that stock theft has not significantly caused cattle reduction but actually retards it.
- INTRODUCTION
Fluctuations in the level of livestock in a nation can be cited as a factor to explain crises on the national resources, especially downwards fluctuations. Traditionally, one way to store wealth especially in rural areas is to convert any yield to livestock, with cattle being the most valuable and preferred. This is because cattle can be used for many purposes as compared to any other domestic animal, for example they can be used for meat in ceremonial times, used to pay lobola, used to draw ploughs and carts and also for milk production. Livestock are primarily seen as financial capital. For many poor households livestock are the main form of savings. As an investment few other resources have the same potential for "capital growth". Sale of livestock may allow a household to generate cash quickly at times of need. Livestock may also be a regular and important source of income, through sales of products - including manure. The focus of this study is on determining and explaining the factors that have led to cattle livestock reduction and ways to combat the unfavorable case.
Despite the contribution livestock have on human life, they to some extend cause havoc to the nation. Livestock have been criticised for contributing to global warming (18% of current greenhouse gas emissions in CO2 equivalents), for introducing new disease (bird flu, and mad cow disease), and causing heart disease, cancer and obesity. Such views might make international agencies and donors hesitant to be seen promoting livestock to alleviate poverty, (International Livestock Research Institute). However, animal-source foods are a key weapon for combating malnutrition and a range of nutritional deficiencies, which are far more urgent problems in poor countries. Thus, animal-source foods can measurably enhance nutritional quality in diets, especially for vulnerable groups such as young children and pregnant and lactating women. Efforts are needed to raise awareness among policy makers and researchers about the benefits of animal-source food consumption for the poor and the negligible risks of negative (nutritionally mediated) health impacts and the small negative environmental impacts of livestock kept by the poor, relative to the much larger societal benefits of livestock keeping for their livelihoods.
Moreover, livestock and livestock rearing are also risky. Poor households have limited disposable incomes and therefore a limited ability to purchase inputs, for example animal health services or supplementary feeding, and as a result are less able to control mortality of stock than are the richer or non-poor farmers operating on a larger scale. Livestock markets may also have seasonal peaks that are not suited to the capabilities of the poor, putting poor livestock keepers at a further disadvantage - especially since they still have year-round needs for inputs and require income for food and basic needs, (LPP, 2006).
Some researches have predicted positive growth in livestock numbers in the years to come. This fact, however becomes questionable as far as Zimbabwe is concerned particularly its rural areas. The fact in question as predicted is given like this, "Human population growth, increasing urbanization and rising incomes are predicted to double the demand for, and production of, livestock and livestock products in the developing countries over the next 20 years. Livestock production is growing faster than any other agricultural sub-sector and it is predicted that by 2020, livestock will produce more than half of the total global agricultural output in value terms. This process has been referred to as the livestock revolution," (Delgado et al., 1999).
Given such a view, Zimbabwean rural areas are doing the opposite and an investigation into this is necessary and thus forms the relevance of this study. For the past decade the Gokomere farm has been recorded to have over 1000 herd of cattle and currently the stock of cattle have reduced almost by half, which is a significant decline. Attention should be drawn as to why this change has reached those levels. So it is in the interest of this study to find the causes of such decline and to find ways to address this issue.
At this backdrop, the timing and sequencing is more relevant, since Gokomere Mission being part of the rural areas in developing nations and could not avoid the reduction of its livestock, in conducting a study regarding the reduction in livestock and the alternate measures for revenue mobilization.
Research Problem
Given the predicted global livetock revolution by 2020 in developing nations, why do Zimbabwean rural areas move in the opposite direction? It has been noticed that demand for livestock product is far increasing implying a shift in production of livestock. The problem which the study seeks to address emanates from the fact that there has been a continuous decline in the level of livestock in the rural areas of Zimbabwe, evidence from Gokomere over the past two decades. The causes of such trend should be investigated and mitigation strategies found should then be applied to rescue a nation.
Research Questions
The general question and specific question of the study are consecutively as follows;
(a) What has led to the decline in the livestock (cattle) in the period?
(b) Does stock theft lead to decline in stock levels?
(c) Does migration to towns lead to increased wealth in form of cattle livestock?
(d) What is happening over time to the rate of cattle livestock reduction?
Objectives of the Study
Given the fact that the stock of livestock continues to decline in rural areas of Zimbabwe with no particular reason, the causes have to be found. As livestock is taken as an investment by rural households, it then has to be seen growing over time for it to be deemed good investment. Unlike the Navajo Livestock Reduction case (in the 1930s) when the livestock levels have been too many given the land area and the US government has to intervene by slaughtering, the case for Gokomere rural livestock reduction is not known. Hence, the objective of the study is to determine the factors that have caused significant reduction in cattle livestock.
Hypothesis of the study
The main hypotheses to be tested in this study are that:
- Migration of the young population is positively related to livestock reduction.
- Rising cost of living reduces number of cattle livestock.
- Stock theft is positively related to cattle livestock reduction.
These hypotheses are tested by determining the significance of the regression coefficients of relevant regression equation that will be estimated.
Significance of the Study
The study helps in identifying factors that undermines the growth in the size of stock in communities. The results can be used to take relevant measures to prevent the declining trend and hence to boost the rural and also country wealth. The study will contribute to existing literature on livestock production for developing nations, this helps in the continuous debate of the effects of various determinants. Analyzing the determinants offers a guide to policy makers on which areas to put more emphasis.
Scope of the Study
A fully comprehensive coverage of all rural areas of Zimbabwe is practically impossible therefore in the study only the Gokomere area is used. The information obtained in this analysis can be transferred across to other nations for the purpose of policy formulation. The study uses secondary data gathered for twenty five families for a period 1995 to 2008, this offers adequate degrees of freedom to the study. This involves the researcher going to the area and collect data from randomly selected households. It has to be noted that, where no records could be found the author gives the households a chance to give what they remember, the option has been given since the missing records have mainly been of current years.
- 2. LITERATURE REVIEW
Previous literature treated livestock as any other commercial farm activity. When demand for livestock is low, farmers opt for other highly demanded farm produces. However livestock production is treated as a long term project which needs high levels of capital and appraising it involves strategic analysis.
Few literature involved discussion of livestock production in the rural context. Rural people do not keep livestock for commercial production rather they have other reasons they base their activities. Social status is usually measured by the number of livestock and wives one possesses. Economically powerful people in the area are determined that way. Ritual ceremonies and payment of lobola are some uses of livestock.
Previous studies have mentioned the outbreaks of diseases such as anthrax, foot and mouth among others as the main factors leading to reduction in livestock. During that time factors like theft and migration of people were not so strong and hence were not considered. Hence the study has a time dimension, which means it is based on what is really happening in a period of time. This study adds to empirical literature in the rural context.
Khoabane and Black (2009), in their study for Lesotho, found out that livestock theft contributed to livestock reduction, the main causes of theft being increasing poverty among the unemployed workers and drought stricken crop farmers. Livestock theft reduces the affected households' own consumption of both the "returns" on their wealth, e.g. milk and wool, and of wealth itself, e.g. meat and hides. In addition, it restricts their ability to sell their returns and wealth in the market place and use the proceeds to acquire other food and non-food products. Some policy implications are also highlighted.
Kynoch and Ulicki (2000) found that migration to towns inorder to find jobs has increased in response to the increase in agricultural unemployment, which is attributable to stock theft among other factors. Members of some households have been able to find work in the urban parts of the country. These are mostly young female members, who have been employed in the textile industries (Dzimba and Matooane, 2005). Some work as nannies and domestic workers and are in most cases paid wages that are below the minimum wage.
A study by Dzimba and Matooane (2005) indicated that due to stock theft many children leave school early because parents cannot afford to pay for their schooling. However the implementation of free primary education policy in Lesotho, which now covers the entire primary school system, every Lesotho child can complete primary education. Secondary and high school levels are a problem, the government subsidizes a significant portion of the school fees and parents still bear a relatively substantial share of the total costs. Also every child who completes high school successfully and obtains an admission into tertiary institutions in Lesotho and South Africa instantly qualifies for government sponsorship, which covers all the costs. However, this opportunity is lost for those whose parents cannot afford paying for their secondary and high school education are not able to benefit from this opportunity.
The FAO (1997) states that there are some very poor households that managed to accumulate some livestock from hiring out their sons as herd boys for richer households in Lesotho. Many of the relatively rich households have been impoverished as thieves have stolen a large part of their livestock. This suggests that stock theft affects poor households in two different ways: firstly, poor households lose the stock that they have to the thieves; and secondly, they are no longer able to accumulate livestock by hiring out their services to the rich as the thieves have also left many of the formerly rich with none.
The study proves to be one of the pioneers to explore the determinants of livestock reduction particularly cattle and no literature could be found linking other determinants to the dependant variable. In that case the author uses some skills and method to justify its inclusion in the model. The study will now discuss the methodology to be used.
- 3. METHODOLOGY
In order to meet the set objectives, the study attempts to include both quantitative and qualitative techniques. The study will employ a panel data methodology to capture individual family effects since we have different families. Tests will be carried as to which method will be suitable given the data in the study. This involves testing fixed effects model against pooled OLS, fixed effects model against random effects model and pooled OLS against random effects model. The tests include the F-test, Hausman test and the LM test. Autocorrelation and homoskedasticity will also be controlled to yield efficient results.
According to theoretical and empirical literature and also through strategical analysis the model to be estimated in the study involves six factors. Basing on the above argument, a testable equation for cattle livestock reduction can be given by:
CAT= f(THEFT, DISEASE, COST, MIGRATION, TREND, AGINGPOP)
Where; CAT- number of livestock, THEFT- number of stolen livestock, DISEASE- number of livestock died of a disease, COST- cost of living, MIGRATION- young people moving to town, TREND- time, AGINGPOP- years of caretakers/owners.
CHOICE OF VARIABLES
Cattle Reduction variable (CAT) is measured as the number of cattle a family possesses annually. This is taken as the dependent variable in the regression equation. It shows the changes in cattle livestock over the entire period.
Theft variable (THEFT) captures the number of stolen cattle in a year for each family. Theft is expected to have a positive relationship with cattle reduction. Main reported thieves for cattle are butcher men and they target high quality and big oxen, and to prevent this household despose those cattle with high probability of being stolen. This will then undermine cattle production.
Disease variable (DISEASE) will capture the effects of disease outbreaks affecting cattle production. It is approximated by the number of deaths due to known and unknown diseases. Major reported deaths are from calves and hence this affects production as aging livestock is not well replaced by young ones. Expected sign is positive.
Cost of living variable (COST). It is expected that as the cost of living rises the wealth of rural households decreases as they freeze their assets to cover themselves. A positive sign is expected.
Migration variable (MIGRATION) is captured by the number of young people moving from rural areas into towns. It is expected that if one moves into town he will generate more earnings and remit others back home, this will then add more wealth to rural areas in form of increased livestock. A negative sign is expected.
Years of livestock caretakers variable (AGINGPOP) is measured by the age of those people who manage the livestock. It is postulated that as people get old they can no longer manage the livestock productively. Some may even sell other livestock and leave a few which they can manage. A positive sign is expected.
The time trend variable (TREND) capture the effect of time to the production of livestock. It is expected that production of livestock is not stagnant rather it changes over time. Hence it is in the interest of this study to trace the direction of cattle production.
- 4. ESTIMATION AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS
STATA 10 econometric package have been used for the estimation of data, this is the latest version so far and hence more efficient. The software can be used friendly as far as panel data analysis is concerned and it automatically corrects heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation and hence efficient standard errors and unbiased coefficients are obtained. According to the tests undertaken the pooled OLS have been deemed more efficient and hence the results will be used for policy conclusion.
The results obtained from the regression are well presented in the table below.
Pooled Ordinary Least Squares Model Regression Results
Dependent Variable: Cattle Reduction
COEFFICIENT STANDARD ERROR P-VALUE
THEFT -.717364 .712838 0.07 *
DISEASE 2.178459 .3328278 0.000 ***
COST 1.616582 .6491281 0.015 **
MIGRATION .6336156 .8926818 0.480
TREND -.6011118 .169669 0.01 ***
AGINGPOP 0.02342 .23451 0.03**
CONSTANT 1205.217 339.398 0.001 ***
Number of obs = 2100 Adj R-squared = 0.5367
F( 6, 319) = 20.23 Prob > F = 0.0000
DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
The pooled OLS model used in the study is appropriate and correctly specified as indicated by an F-statistic of 20.23 and a p-value of 0.000. the adjusted R-squared of 0.5367 shows that about 53.67% variation in cattle reduction is explained by the explanatory variable chosen, it shows that there is a possibility that some factors that affect cattle reduction have been left by the present study.
The coefficient of DISEASE reports a positive value of 2.178459 with a p- value of 0.0000. it is significant at all levels and shows that it is a major variable in explaining cattle reduction. This can be interpreted as follows; outbreak of diseases in the area has led to the death of calves mainly and hence have led to the number declining.
The rising cost of living is also significant in explaining the reduction of cattle in the area. It is significant at 5% with a positive sign of 1.616582. As the cost of living increases people tend to sell their livestock so as to cover up other expenses such as school fees and food. This will automatically lead to the decline of cattle numbers.
Theft variable has been found significant but with a wrong sign. This implies that stock theft has not led to cattle reduction rather it has caused a decline in the rate of reduction. This seems not practical, however after a thorough examination into this result, it has been discovered that after the outbreak of theft, households exchanged their ‘potential to be stolen' livestock with smaller ones from nearby secured white commercial farms. The rate of exchange was on average one ox to four calves. However it has to be noted that it seems a benefit according to this study but using economic valuation there is loss to households generated by theft.
Aging of population is also positively related to cattle reduction. The variable reports a statistic of 0.02342 and a p-value of 0.02. It shows that it is one of the major variables. As people get old they need less number of cattle they can manage and hence they tend to sell them.
The time variable is also significant at 5% level but with a negative sign. This shows that over time cattle reduction has been prevented. Economically we can say there was a 60% effort to reduce cattle reduction. Although there is reduction of cattle livestock in the rural area, the rate at which they are declining has been decreasing over the period.
The migration of the young population to towns or other areas have been found not explaining any cattle reduction. Initially there was a thought that they will remit some money to buy more cattle, but this idea is not supported by the study as the variable is insignificant. It has been discovered that the population which migrated have largely been caretakers and young women looking for employment in towns after their stocks have been either stolen or die of a disease and were poverty incapacitated and hence unable to remit. Many of them worked as nannies in towns.
- 5. POLICY CONCLUSION AND ADVICE
The study have found factors including theft, aging population, rising cost of living and disease outbreak to be the major causes of cattle reduction in the Gokomere area. So policies to combat the reduction of livestock should be based on the results of this study. There should be a way designed to avoid diseases affecting calves. Treatment of livestock early, educating the residents to the issue and making availability of medicine for curing the diseases. Theft should also be prevented as this causes the poor to lose jobs, this can be done through the development of domestic watchmen, bringing kraals closer to homes to improve security at night and avoiding strangers in the area. Awareness to the aging population should also be done, they may reduce their burden of taking care of the livestock buy giving those who do not have any on a commission rather than disposing them. The rising cost of living is more of the national problem and should be addressed at national level. The government should try to stabilize the economy and also educate the rural population on the true value of their livestock otherwise they dispose them for far lower value leading to more cattle sold to address a single issue.
The literature revealed indicates that cattle livestock plays a significant role in the livelihoods of the rural poor in developing countries in many various forms. Thus stock theft, which has taken on alarming proportions in Zimbabwe, has exacerbated the problem of poverty among rural households. The effects of stock theft on households include an enforced cut back in the own consumption of and the sale of animal products (part of the returns to wealth). It also removes their ability to sell livestock itself and use the proceeds to acquire other food and non-food products or expand and diversify their farming activities. Taking human development dimension, livestock theft often prevents household heads from investing in the human capital development of their children, and may also result in a deterioration of the household's nutritional status adding to health expenses. The loss of livestock limits the coping strategies available to HIV/AIDS affected households. Policies to combat this problem are emphasized by this study.
There is a need for increased investment in livestock production, given the rapidly growing demand for animal products and the important contribution of livestock to the incomes and welfare of the rural poor. Development policies then should be of priority in developing nations, this can be witnessed by increase in the proportion allocated to agriculture in the overall economic budget. Currently inadequate government intervention is seen in rural areas.
In conclusion, the problem of cattle reduction in Gokomere area and other areas in similar state can be combated if the findings of the study are considered and also its advice. Policy makers should concentrate on policies that focus on the factors found to be affecting cattle reduction. By this Zimbabwe as a developing nation will be able to join others in the road to The Livestock Revolution, and also be able to arrest poverty problems, which are also part of the Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations.
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