Five Microsoft Predictions for 2011
We're almost done with 2010, which means it's time for 2011 predictions. Here are my top five for Microsoft in the coming year.
- Windows 7 will continue to sell huge. As you may know, it's Microsoft's best-selling operating system ever. It's also Microsoft's best OS ever. And that last fact, combined with the fact that Windows XP is on its last, creaky legs, will keep Windows 7 selling like crazy.
- Windows Phone 7 will make real inroads. Windows Phone 7 is Microsoft's latest attempt to compete with the iPhone and Android smartphone platforms. Early returns on the phone are encouraging, but Microsoft has a long way to go, as it's way behind the two leaders. I think, however, that the phone's sleek design, and the large number of application developers Microsoft has signed up to build apps for the phone, will make it a player. I don't know if it will threaten iPhone and Android next year, but Windows Phone 7 is a solid product out of the gate.
- Microsoft's move to "the cloud" will continue. In this context, the "cloud" is the encompassing term for more and more computing functionality moving to the Internet, instead of being done on your computer at home. Microsoft has cloud versions of Office and many other products (think "Google Docs", where you the documents are stored remotely, on a Google server, rather than your local hard drive). Those offerings will get more sophisticated in 2011, and more usable.
- Very little will happen on the Windows 8 front. Microsoft is always working on the next new OS, but I think Windows 7's successor, Windows 8 (or whatever it'll be called) will be held off for awhile. This is due mainly to two things: 1) Windows 7 needs a lot more adoption time. It's not entrenched enough in homes and businesses, and Microsoft doesn't want to confuse the public by offering another OS so soon, and 2) It's got bigger fish to try. Tremendous resources are being devoted to technologies like mobile and cloud computing, leaving fewer folks working on a new OS (especially when Windows 7 is doing so well. After the Windows Vista disaster, Microsoft couldn't get a new OS out fast enough. That's not the case anymore).
- Steve Ballmer resigns. This is the prediction I'm least confident about. Ballmer, Microsoft's CEO, hasn't advanced the company very much since he took over for Bill Gates a few years ago. There's pressure on him to increase Microsoft's profits more sharply, and that hasn't happened under his watch. If 2011 is stagnant, he may decided to take his billions and go home.