Horse Racing Tipster Reveals 5 Winning Secrets For Picking Horses
I have spent hundreds of hours analysing the outcome of thousands of horse races and have come to the conclusion that the five main criteria when trying to predict to outcome of a horse race are Form, fitness, proven ability over the course and distance, and weight.
1. Form. This is the most crucial factor in assessing a horse race. 65% of all races are won by horses that have finished in the first 6 last time out. A horse that has finished in the last 3 last time out has a much better chance of winning. With a horse with good recent winning form most likely to win again. I would concentrate on the previous 2 or 3 form figures for the current season only when assessing form.
2. Fitness. Another influencing factor is the fitness of a horse. Horses that run within 28 days of their previous outing win around 66% of all races. Horses running within 8-14 days of a previous outing have the most chance of winning again followed by those running 15-21 days after their previous outing.
3. Distance. Horses that have previously won at the distance they are running today win around 35% of all races.
4. Course. Horses that have previously won at the course win about 16% of all races.
5. Weight. Horses carrying top weight often brush aside the challenge of the bottom weight horses simply because of their class they have the ability to do so.
Conclusion. Predicting the outcome of a horse race is not an exact science. There are so many factors that it would be silly to think you could accurately predict the outcome of for every single race. Other factors such as the going, jockey and the pace of the race all play a part in determining the outcome of a race. But if you concentrate on the above five factors of picking a horse with good recent form, preferably winning form that is fit and proven over the course and distance then you will be giving yourself the best chance of a winning horse. The last thing you need to do once you have your selection is to get a value price on the horse. I very rarely back horses below 3/1 in price as there is so much that could go wrong in a race. Very occasionally I will go as low as 2/1 if I think the horse has an outstanding chance.
1. Form. This is the most crucial factor in assessing a horse race. 65% of all races are won by horses that have finished in the first 6 last time out. A horse that has finished in the last 3 last time out has a much better chance of winning. With a horse with good recent winning form most likely to win again. I would concentrate on the previous 2 or 3 form figures for the current season only when assessing form.
2. Fitness. Another influencing factor is the fitness of a horse. Horses that run within 28 days of their previous outing win around 66% of all races. Horses running within 8-14 days of a previous outing have the most chance of winning again followed by those running 15-21 days after their previous outing.
3. Distance. Horses that have previously won at the distance they are running today win around 35% of all races.
4. Course. Horses that have previously won at the course win about 16% of all races.
5. Weight. Horses carrying top weight often brush aside the challenge of the bottom weight horses simply because of their class they have the ability to do so.
Conclusion. Predicting the outcome of a horse race is not an exact science. There are so many factors that it would be silly to think you could accurately predict the outcome of for every single race. Other factors such as the going, jockey and the pace of the race all play a part in determining the outcome of a race. But if you concentrate on the above five factors of picking a horse with good recent form, preferably winning form that is fit and proven over the course and distance then you will be giving yourself the best chance of a winning horse. The last thing you need to do once you have your selection is to get a value price on the horse. I very rarely back horses below 3/1 in price as there is so much that could go wrong in a race. Very occasionally I will go as low as 2/1 if I think the horse has an outstanding chance.