March 22, 2007

Remember Kosovo? In 1999, NATO forces swept in to stop abuses against the ethnic Albanian majority in this province of Serbia. By then, at least 10,000 lives were lost, 500,000 were homeless, and one million had fled the country.

After a 78 day military campaign secured the area, the United Nations took control and said it would decide the future of Kosovo. And decision day is getting very close.


Former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari was assigned by the United Nations to mediate negotiations between Serb and Kosovar leaders in search of a final status for Kosovo. With the Kosovars demanding independence and the Serbs saying no such thing is possible, Ahtisaari found no common ground.

Instead, he was instructed to deliver his own final recommendation to the U.N. Security Council. The report is now ready, and the council is set to consider it on March 26.

The recommendations call for Kosovo to be split from Serbia and given near full independence. Kosovo would move from United Nations control to oversight by the European Union. Whether boldly stated or not, this would be a temporary situation on the path to full sovereignty.

Most of the world's nations seem to agree with this course of action. Only Serbia and Russia appear to have serious objections. Russia worries that granting independence for Kosovo would create a positive precedent for the would-be breakaway regions within Russia, including Chechnya.

This is important because Russia is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council with veto authority. This means they could stop the Kosovo final status plan all by themselves.

For the moment, Russia is suggesting that new talks with a new mediator be convened. But in Kosovo, seven years of limbo are already straining the patience of the people.

Any decision which does not put them firmly on the path to independence will provoke an enormous outcry with the potential for violent protest and bloodshed. It may even tempt Kosovar leaders to declare independence on their own, leading to a war-like regional conflict.

This all has serious repercussions for the United States which still has 1,500 troops based in Kosovo charged with maintaining order. U.S. policy makers are in favor of self-determination for Kosovo, and are well aware that this must happen through Security Council action to be legitimate.

The big question: Will the United States and the West offer Russia some kind of incentive to keep them from using their veto? For now, all eyes are on the U.N. Security Council as they face one of their most important decisions in several years.

More

• Background on the conflict, from the About Guide to U.S. Foreign Policy
• Maps and details, from the About Guide to Geography
• Russian Powerplay Over Kosovo Could Trigger New European War, from Simon Tisdall of The Guardian