Fantasy Hockey 2011-12 Preview: Ranking Top 15 Goalies
In ranking the top 15 goalies from a fantasy hockey perspective, one must consider past performance, age, health, and the team for which each goalie plays.
Also, I considered only the basic fantasy goalie stats---wins, GAA, save percentage, and shutouts---and nothing too exotic in finalizing my list.
Send your fantasy hockey questions or comments to jimcerny@gmail.com
Some fantasy hockey owners may be turned off by his post-season roller coaster, and seeing him outplayed by Tim Thomas in the Stanley Cup Final, but Luongo is as solid a fantasy bet as one will find between the pipes. His numbers may not be as spectacular as they were a year ago, but, playing for an elite team, Luongo should continue his consistent run as a top-tier fantasy goalie in 2011-12.
Few goalies in hockey are as consistent year-in and year-out as Lundqvist, whose goals-against has shrunk in each of the past three seasons and whose save percentage was .921 and .923 the past two. There will be other goalies, playing on better teams, who will have a few more wins, but when considering the total package of wins, GAA, save percentage, and shutouts (he had a league-high 11 last year), Lundqvist is as good as they come from a fantasy perspective.
After a career year in 2009-10, Miller came back to fantasy hockey earth last season. But he is healthy heading into 2011-12, and the Sabres have fortified the team around him, so I expect Miller to bounce back in a big way. Some fantasy hockey experts may think this is a reach, but I like Miller at No. 3 among goalies.
Rinne came into his own with a .930 save percentage and 2.12 goals-against average in 2010-11. It will be hard to match those numbers exactly, but Rinne is solid enough to provide elite fantasy hockey stats again at age 28. His win total is the one question mark because it is, of course, tied to his team, and the Preds are not a sure thing this year by any stretch.
It is hard to rank Thomas fifth overall when considering his phenomenal statistics---and Cup glory---of a year ago. But it must be taken into account that, at age 37 and coming off a long playoff run, Thomas may not play as much as he did last season. Therefore his win total should fall a bit---and remember he had "only" 35 a year ago. Plus his save percentage (.938) and GAA (2.00) are going to be pretty darn hard to match. Thomas is a solid fantasy pick, but be aware of the limitations he will be playing under in 2011-12.
I'm not sure why so many fantasy hockey experts place Vokoun so low in their rankings this year. Jumping from the basement (Florida) to the penthouse (Washington) of the Eastern Conference will boost Vokoun's win total considerably; and he has always been well-regarded in fantasy hockey circles for his solid GAA and save percentage while playing for a lousy team. I really believe Vokoun will be a great fantasy pick this year, and even doubt myself a bit for not placing him in my Top Five among netminders.
Count me as a believer that Price has turned the corner and is on his way to becoming a consistent star goaltender in the NHL at the age of 24. It is not farfetched to see Price matching the 2.35 goals against and .923 save percentage numbers he posted last year. And he is a workhorse (72 appearances in 2010-11), meaning that he should win his fair share of games for a pretty good Montreal team.
He's making a lot of starts for a team that will do a lot of winning again this year, so that's a big plus for Fleury. Now he needs to be able to build upon the strong (2.32 GAA, .918 save %) numbers he posted last season and not revert to the much-higher goals against and weaker save percentage of prior years.
Playing for an improved Coyotes team the past two years, Bryzgalov became a sought-after fantasy hockey goaltender. Now with a Flyers team that has done quite the make-over this off-season, I can see Bryzgalov posting similar numbers (in the 35-win, 2.35 GAA, .920 save %, 7 shutouts range). That would most certainly make him a top-tier goalie once again in fantasy hockey circles.
Talk about high risk, high reward. Hiller embodies that completely. If healthy, Hiller is arguably a Top Five goalie in fantasy hockey with his combination of excellent save percentage, improving goals against, and shutout potential. Plus, if he can make 60-65 starts for a pretty good Ducks team, Hiller's win total should be solid, too. However, vertigo wrecked his season a year ago, and you can't be 100% sure that he won't have dizzy spells again this season. Buyer beware, for sure.
Also, I considered only the basic fantasy goalie stats---wins, GAA, save percentage, and shutouts---and nothing too exotic in finalizing my list.
Send your fantasy hockey questions or comments to jimcerny@gmail.com
1. Roberto Luongo-Canucks
Some fantasy hockey owners may be turned off by his post-season roller coaster, and seeing him outplayed by Tim Thomas in the Stanley Cup Final, but Luongo is as solid a fantasy bet as one will find between the pipes. His numbers may not be as spectacular as they were a year ago, but, playing for an elite team, Luongo should continue his consistent run as a top-tier fantasy goalie in 2011-12.
2. Henrik Lundqvist-Rangers
Few goalies in hockey are as consistent year-in and year-out as Lundqvist, whose goals-against has shrunk in each of the past three seasons and whose save percentage was .921 and .923 the past two. There will be other goalies, playing on better teams, who will have a few more wins, but when considering the total package of wins, GAA, save percentage, and shutouts (he had a league-high 11 last year), Lundqvist is as good as they come from a fantasy perspective.
3. Ryan Miller-Sabres
After a career year in 2009-10, Miller came back to fantasy hockey earth last season. But he is healthy heading into 2011-12, and the Sabres have fortified the team around him, so I expect Miller to bounce back in a big way. Some fantasy hockey experts may think this is a reach, but I like Miller at No. 3 among goalies.
4. Pekka Rinne-Predators
Rinne came into his own with a .930 save percentage and 2.12 goals-against average in 2010-11. It will be hard to match those numbers exactly, but Rinne is solid enough to provide elite fantasy hockey stats again at age 28. His win total is the one question mark because it is, of course, tied to his team, and the Preds are not a sure thing this year by any stretch.
5. Tim Thomas-Bruins
It is hard to rank Thomas fifth overall when considering his phenomenal statistics---and Cup glory---of a year ago. But it must be taken into account that, at age 37 and coming off a long playoff run, Thomas may not play as much as he did last season. Therefore his win total should fall a bit---and remember he had "only" 35 a year ago. Plus his save percentage (.938) and GAA (2.00) are going to be pretty darn hard to match. Thomas is a solid fantasy pick, but be aware of the limitations he will be playing under in 2011-12.
6. Tomas Vokoun-Capitals
I'm not sure why so many fantasy hockey experts place Vokoun so low in their rankings this year. Jumping from the basement (Florida) to the penthouse (Washington) of the Eastern Conference will boost Vokoun's win total considerably; and he has always been well-regarded in fantasy hockey circles for his solid GAA and save percentage while playing for a lousy team. I really believe Vokoun will be a great fantasy pick this year, and even doubt myself a bit for not placing him in my Top Five among netminders.
7. Carey Price-Canadiens
Count me as a believer that Price has turned the corner and is on his way to becoming a consistent star goaltender in the NHL at the age of 24. It is not farfetched to see Price matching the 2.35 goals against and .923 save percentage numbers he posted last year. And he is a workhorse (72 appearances in 2010-11), meaning that he should win his fair share of games for a pretty good Montreal team.
8. Marc-Andre Fleury-Penguins
He's making a lot of starts for a team that will do a lot of winning again this year, so that's a big plus for Fleury. Now he needs to be able to build upon the strong (2.32 GAA, .918 save %) numbers he posted last season and not revert to the much-higher goals against and weaker save percentage of prior years.
9. Ilya Bryzgalov-Flyers
Playing for an improved Coyotes team the past two years, Bryzgalov became a sought-after fantasy hockey goaltender. Now with a Flyers team that has done quite the make-over this off-season, I can see Bryzgalov posting similar numbers (in the 35-win, 2.35 GAA, .920 save %, 7 shutouts range). That would most certainly make him a top-tier goalie once again in fantasy hockey circles.
10. Jonas Hiller-Ducks
Talk about high risk, high reward. Hiller embodies that completely. If healthy, Hiller is arguably a Top Five goalie in fantasy hockey with his combination of excellent save percentage, improving goals against, and shutout potential. Plus, if he can make 60-65 starts for a pretty good Ducks team, Hiller's win total should be solid, too. However, vertigo wrecked his season a year ago, and you can't be 100% sure that he won't have dizzy spells again this season. Buyer beware, for sure.