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Analyzing the Top 2010 Kentucky Derby Contenders

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The next 2 horses scored an equal number of points and are thus presented in alphabetical order.

Mission Impazible comes to Louisville after winning the Louisiana Derby, earning him a sharp prep and a 3-year-old stakes victory. He made the minimum 2 starts as a juvenile and 3 this year. On the negative side, he usually runs a stalking trip about 3 lengths off the pace, he is coming off a 5 week layoff, has a dosage index over 4, and has run three consecutive Beyer tops, made worse by the fact his best is only a 94.


Rule finished third in the Florida Derby, a sharp prep after getting a 3-year-old stakes win in the Sam F. Davis. He made 5 starts as a juvenile, 7 total. However he is a need-the-lead type, has a dosage index over 4, only has 2 starts this year, is coming off a 6 week layoff, and his best Beyer figure is a slow 98.

Endorsement scored the fewest points, having the most knocks. He sold for $450k at auction, only made 1 start as a juvenile and 4 starts total, is coming off a 5 week layoff, is not a dual qualifier, and has run three consecutive top Beyers. His Sunland Derby win qualifies as a sharp prep, a 3-year-old stakes victory, and earned a 101 Beyer, he has a dosage under 4, and has 3 starts this year. It is worth noting that in last year's Derby analysis, eventual winner Mine That Bird had the fewest points. Can lightning strike twice?

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